driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.485
- brier
- 0.156
- ECE
- 0.225
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 72
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
LEC
Ferrari
87%grid 3 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
85%grid 6 - 03
ALB
Williams
72%grid 5 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
70%grid 4 - 05
GAS
Alpine
65%grid 13 - 06
NOR
McLaren
59%grid 1 - 07
BOR
Kick Sauber
56%grid 10 - 08
STR
Aston Martin
54%grid 16 - 09
LAW
Racing Bulls
54%grid 9 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
51%grid 12 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
51%grid 8 - 12
OCO
Haas F1 Team
50%grid 11 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
47%grid 20 - 14
TSU
Red Bull Racing
42%grid 7 - 15
PIA
McLaren
39%grid 2 - 16
COL
Alpine
33%grid 15 - 17
ANT
Mercedes
27%grid 19 - 18
HUL
Kick Sauber
25%grid 14 - 19
SAI
Williams
19%grid 17 - 20
HAM
Ferrari
16%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
LEC
Ferrari
Probability
87%
- vs teammate grid+0.97
- vs teammate quali+0.51
- driver form (last 5)+0.23
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on LEC (Ferrari) at 87.2%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 56.1%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race