driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.611
- brier
- 0.213
- ECE
- 0.138
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 58
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
HAM
Mercedes
81%grid 5 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
81%grid 3 - 03
SAI
Ferrari
69%grid 4 - 04
BOT
Kick Sauber
66%grid 12 - 05
NOR
McLaren
59%grid 1 - 06
HUL
Haas F1 Team
58%grid 11 - 07
TSU
RB
54%grid 10 - 08
STR
Aston Martin
53%grid 8 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
51%grid 7 - 10
PIA
McLaren
51%grid 2 - 11
GAS
Alpine
49%grid 20 - 12
SAR
Williams
48%grid 14 - 13
RIC
RB
48%grid 9 - 14
ALB
Williams
43%grid 13 - 15
OCO
Alpine
42%grid 19 - 16
MAG
Haas F1 Team
40%grid 15 - 17
LEC
Ferrari
34%grid 6 - 18
RUS
Mercedes
26%grid 17 - 19
PER
Red Bull Racing
26%grid 16 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
23%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
HAM
Mercedes
Probability
81%
- vs teammate grid+0.86
- vs teammate quali+0.31
- driver form (last 5)+0.15
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on HAM (Mercedes) at 80.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 55.1%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race