driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.526
- brier
- 0.171
- ECE
- 0.164
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 56
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
78%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
75%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
72%grid 6 - 04
GAS
Alpine
72%grid 9 - 05
RUS
Mercedes
70%grid 4 - 06
BOT
Kick Sauber
68%grid 16 - 07
SAR
Williams
68%grid 18 - 08
TSU
RB
66%grid 11 - 09
HUL
Haas F1 Team
61%grid 12 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
54%grid 7 - 11
STR
Aston Martin
49%grid 8 - 12
ALB
Williams
46%grid 19 - 13
MAG
Haas F1 Team
40%grid 20 - 14
ZHO
Kick Sauber
37%grid 17 - 15
PER
Red Bull Racing
32%grid 5 - 16
RIC
RB
32%grid 13 - 17
PIA
McLaren
32%grid 3 - 18
SAI
Ferrari
29%grid 10 - 19
OCO
Alpine
25%grid 15 - 20
HAM
Mercedes
23%grid 14
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
78%
- vs teammate grid+0.62
- vs teammate quali+0.33
- driver form (last 5)+0.14
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 78.4%.
Strongest team average: Williams 56.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race