§ Round 03 · 2026
Japanese Grand Prix.
2026-03-29 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.613
- brier
- 0.213
- ECE
- 0.243
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 52
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
OCO
Haas F1 Team
76%grid 12 - 02
GAS
Alpine
76%grid 7 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
74%grid 4 - 04
ANT
Mercedes
70%grid 1 - 05
LIN
Racing Bulls
64%grid 10 - 06
BOR
Audi
63%grid 9 - 07
HAD
Red Bull Racing
62%grid 8 - 08
PIA
McLaren
61%grid 3 - 09
SAI
Williams
53%grid 16 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
51%grid 21 - 11
PER
Cadillac
50%grid 19 - 12
STR
Aston Martin
48%grid 22 - 13
ALB
Williams
42%grid 17 - 14
BOT
Cadillac
41%grid 20 - 15
NOR
McLaren
38%grid 5 - 16
HUL
Audi
37%grid 13 - 17
VER
Red Bull Racing
33%grid 11 - 18
RUS
Mercedes
33%grid 2 - 19
LAW
Racing Bulls
29%grid 14 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
27%grid 18 - 21
HAM
Ferrari
26%grid 6 - 22
COL
Alpine
24%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
OCO
Haas F1 Team
Probability
76%
- vs teammate grid+0.76
- vs teammate quali+0.49
- track history−0.05
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on OCO (Haas F1 Team) at 75.9%.
Strongest team average: Haas F1 Team 51.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race