§ Round 03 · 2026
Japanese Grand Prix.
2026-03-29 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.039
- brier
- 0.011
- ECE
- 0.031
- field avg
- 3%
- spread
- 54
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
ANT
Mercedes
54%grid 1 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
17%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
3%grid 4 - 04
PIA
McLaren
1%grid 3 - 05
VER
Red Bull Racing
0%grid 11 - 06
HAM
Ferrari
0%grid 6 - 07
NOR
McLaren
0%grid 5 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
0%grid 8 - 09
BOR
Audi
0%grid 9 - 10
ALB
Williams
0%grid 17 - 11
PER
Cadillac
0%grid 19 - 12
BOT
Cadillac
0%grid 20 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
0%grid 21 - 14
STR
Aston Martin
0%grid 22 - 15
SAI
Williams
0%grid 16 - 16
HUL
Audi
0%grid 13 - 17
GAS
Alpine
0%grid 7 - 18
LAW
Racing Bulls
0%grid 14 - 19
COL
Alpine
0%grid 15 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 18 - 21
OCO
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 12 - 22
LIN
Racing Bulls
0%grid 10
Top driver · factor breakdown
ANT
Mercedes
Probability
54%
- grid position+3.40
- quali gap to pole+1.32
- driver form (last 3)+0.76
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on ANT (Mercedes) at 53.7%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 35.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver WINS (1st place)