§ Round 03 · 2026
Japanese Grand Prix.
2026-03-29 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.448
- brier
- 0.144
- ECE
- 0.165
- field avg
- 44%
- spread
- 90
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
95%grid 2 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
92%grid 4 - 03
ANT
Mercedes
91%grid 1 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
84%grid 11 - 05
PIA
McLaren
84%grid 3 - 06
NOR
McLaren
83%grid 5 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
69%grid 6 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
66%grid 8 - 09
BEA
Haas F1 Team
44%grid 18 - 10
SAI
Williams
38%grid 16 - 11
LIN
Racing Bulls
37%grid 10 - 12
GAS
Alpine
31%grid 7 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
26%grid 14 - 14
ALO
Aston Martin
20%grid 21 - 15
HUL
Audi
20%grid 13 - 16
OCO
Haas F1 Team
19%grid 12 - 17
PER
Cadillac
17%grid 19 - 18
BOR
Audi
15%grid 9 - 19
COL
Alpine
12%grid 15 - 20
ALB
Williams
9%grid 17 - 21
BOT
Cadillac
9%grid 20 - 22
STR
Aston Martin
5%grid 22
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
95%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.14
- driver form (last 5)+0.50
- team form+0.42
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 95.3%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 93.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)