driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.463
- brier
- 0.150
- ECE
- 0.129
- field avg
- 53%
- spread
- 84
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
94%grid 2 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
93%grid 5 - 03
PIA
McLaren
91%grid 3 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
89%grid 1 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
83%grid 4 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
74%grid 6 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
72%grid 8 - 08
SAI
Williams
70%grid 15 - 09
ALB
Williams
49%grid 9 - 10
TSU
Red Bull Racing
46%grid 14 - 11
ALO
Aston Martin
44%grid 12 - 12
HUL
Kick Sauber
43%grid 16 - 13
HAD
Racing Bulls
39%grid 7 - 14
GAS
Alpine
37%grid 11 - 15
BOR
Kick Sauber
35%grid 17 - 16
OCO
Haas F1 Team
23%grid 18 - 17
LAW
Racing Bulls
21%grid 13 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
19%grid 20 - 19
BEA
Haas F1 Team
17%grid 10 - 20
DOO
Alpine
11%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
94%
- Q3 appearance rate+0.84
- team form+0.62
- finish pattern+0.60
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 94.4%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 92.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)