driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.541
- brier
- 0.190
- ECE
- 0.192
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
94%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
92%grid 2 - 03
PIA
McLaren
92%grid 5 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
90%grid 4 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
89%grid 9 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
78%grid 17 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
69%grid 19 - 08
HAD
Racing Bulls
58%grid 8 - 09
BEA
Haas F1 Team
57%grid 14 - 10
TSU
Red Bull Racing
44%grid 20 - 11
ALO
Aston Martin
43%grid 7 - 12
LAW
Racing Bulls
43%grid 6 - 13
SAI
Williams
33%grid 3 - 14
HUL
Kick Sauber
26%grid 11 - 15
BOR
Kick Sauber
21%grid 18 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
21%grid 12 - 17
GAS
Alpine
21%grid 10 - 18
OCO
Haas F1 Team
20%grid 13 - 19
ALB
Williams
20%grid 16 - 20
COL
Alpine
14%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
94%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.05
- team form+0.64
- finish pattern+0.60
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 94.4%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 93.1%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)