driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.376
- brier
- 0.115
- ECE
- 0.156
- field avg
- 47%
- spread
- 84
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
92%grid 4 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
92%grid 3 - 03
NOR
McLaren
91%grid 2 - 04
PIA
McLaren
89%grid 1 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
85%grid 10 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
78%grid 5 - 07
HAD
Racing Bulls
70%grid 6 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
43%grid 8 - 09
LAW
Racing Bulls
43%grid 12 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
42%grid 13 - 11
SAI
Williams
38%grid 7 - 12
TSU
Red Bull Racing
35%grid 15 - 13
HAM
Ferrari
33%grid 17 - 14
GAS
Alpine
20%grid 9 - 15
ALB
Williams
20%grid 14 - 16
BOR
Kick Sauber
20%grid 19 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
18%grid 16 - 18
HUL
Kick Sauber
17%grid 11 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
12%grid 18 - 20
COL
Alpine
9%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
92%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.05
- team form+0.44
- finish pattern+0.40
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 92.5%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 90.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)