driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.474
- brier
- 0.158
- ECE
- 0.248
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 80
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
92%grid 3 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
92%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
88%grid 6 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
88%grid 4 - 05
PIA
McLaren
85%grid 1 - 06
HAM
Ferrari
79%grid 5 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
72%grid 8 - 08
SAI
Williams
67%grid 15 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
51%grid 13 - 10
GAS
Alpine
50%grid 16 - 11
HUL
Kick Sauber
42%grid 12 - 12
ALB
Williams
38%grid 10 - 13
DOO
Alpine
31%grid 18 - 14
BOR
Kick Sauber
28%grid 19 - 15
HAD
Racing Bulls
27%grid 7 - 16
TSU
Racing Bulls
22%grid 9 - 17
LAW
Red Bull Racing
21%grid 20 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
19%grid 14 - 19
OCO
Haas F1 Team
18%grid 11 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
12%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
92%
- Q3 appearance rate+0.84
- finish pattern+0.42
- team form+0.37
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 92.5%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 89.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)