driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.137
- brier
- 0.035
- ECE
- 0.114
- field avg
- 16%
- spread
- 76
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
76%grid 2 - 02
PIA
McLaren
66%grid 1 - 03
NOR
McLaren
58%grid 3 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
45%grid 4 - 05
HAM
Ferrari
25%grid 5 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
24%grid 6 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
19%grid 8 - 08
HAD
Racing Bulls
3%grid 7 - 09
SAI
Williams
2%grid 15 - 10
LAW
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 20 - 11
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 16 - 12
TSU
Racing Bulls
1%grid 9 - 13
ALB
Williams
1%grid 10 - 14
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 11 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 12 - 16
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 13 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 14 - 18
DOO
Alpine
0%grid 18 - 19
BOR
Kick Sauber
0%grid 19 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
76%
- grid position+2.08
- driver form (last 5)+0.77
- team form+0.61
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 76.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 61.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)