driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.201
- brier
- 0.065
- ECE
- 0.125
- field avg
- 16%
- spread
- 86
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
87%grid 1 - 02
NOR
McLaren
82%grid 2 - 03
VER
Red Bull Racing
56%grid 3 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
28%grid 4 - 05
HAM
Ferrari
22%grid 5 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
14%grid 7 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
4%grid 6 - 08
ALB
Williams
2%grid 11 - 09
TSU
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 19 - 10
SAI
Williams
1%grid 17 - 11
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 8 - 12
HAD
Racing Bulls
1%grid 9 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 10 - 14
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 15 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 13 - 16
BOR
Kick Sauber
0%grid 12 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 16 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 14 - 19
COL
Alpine
0%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
87%
- grid position+1.91
- team form+1.14
- driver form (last 5)+0.95
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 86.8%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 84.5%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)