driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.170
- brier
- 0.054
- ECE
- 0.126
- field avg
- 15%
- spread
- 77
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
77%grid 1 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
62%grid 3 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
59%grid 2 - 04
NOR
McLaren
36%grid 6 - 05
ANT
Mercedes
25%grid 5 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
22%grid 7 - 07
GAS
Alpine
11%grid 4 - 08
SAI
Williams
2%grid 8 - 09
TSU
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 10 - 10
HAM
Ferrari
2%grid 9 - 11
ALB
Williams
1%grid 15 - 12
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 14 - 13
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 19 - 14
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 16 - 15
BOR
Kick Sauber
0%grid 18 - 16
ALO
Aston Martin
0%grid 13 - 17
BEA
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 20 - 18
HAD
Racing Bulls
0%grid 12 - 19
LAW
Racing Bulls
0%grid 17 - 20
DOO
Alpine
0%grid 11
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
77%
- grid position+1.97
- team form+0.90
- quali gap to pole+0.64
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 77.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 56.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)