driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.499
- brier
- 0.158
- ECE
- 0.214
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 63
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
LEC
Ferrari
82%grid 2 - 02
ALO
Aston Martin
77%grid 13 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
77%grid 3 - 04
PIA
McLaren
76%grid 1 - 05
VER
Red Bull Racing
76%grid 7 - 06
SAI
Williams
75%grid 8 - 07
OCO
Haas F1 Team
74%grid 14 - 08
GAS
Alpine
72%grid 4 - 09
HAD
Racing Bulls
67%grid 12 - 10
HUL
Kick Sauber
60%grid 16 - 11
BOR
Kick Sauber
35%grid 18 - 12
LAW
Racing Bulls
34%grid 17 - 13
BEA
Haas F1 Team
33%grid 20 - 14
HAM
Ferrari
30%grid 9 - 15
DOO
Alpine
29%grid 11 - 16
ANT
Mercedes
28%grid 5 - 17
TSU
Red Bull Racing
26%grid 10 - 18
NOR
McLaren
25%grid 6 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
24%grid 19 - 20
ALB
Williams
20%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
LEC
Ferrari
Probability
82%
- vs teammate grid+0.89
- vs teammate quali+0.40
- driver form (last 5)+0.10
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on LEC (Ferrari) at 82.2%.
Strongest team average: Ferrari 55.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race