driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.577
- brier
- 0.194
- ECE
- 0.146
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 63
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
GAS
Alpine
80%grid 9 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
79%grid 3 - 03
NOR
McLaren
77%grid 1 - 04
BEA
Haas F1 Team
75%grid 8 - 05
ALB
Williams
62%grid 12 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
61%grid 2 - 07
ALO
Aston Martin
56%grid 11 - 08
TSU
Red Bull Racing
53%grid 17 - 09
HUL
Kick Sauber
52%grid 10 - 10
HAD
Racing Bulls
48%grid 5 - 11
STR
Aston Martin
47%grid 14 - 12
LAW
Racing Bulls
47%grid 7 - 13
VER
Red Bull Racing
46%grid 19 - 14
BOR
Kick Sauber
43%grid 18 - 15
SAI
Williams
33%grid 15 - 16
PIA
McLaren
26%grid 4 - 17
RUS
Mercedes
25%grid 6 - 18
HAM
Ferrari
23%grid 13 - 19
COL
Alpine
19%grid 16 - 20
OCO
Haas F1 Team
18%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
GAS
Alpine
Probability
80%
- vs teammate grid+0.82
- vs teammate quali+0.59
- track history+0.14
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on GAS (Alpine) at 80.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 51.7%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race