driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.387
- brier
- 0.131
- ECE
- 0.128
- field avg
- 25%
- spread
- 79
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
81%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
76%grid 19 - 03
PIA
McLaren
71%grid 4 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
67%grid 6 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
64%grid 3 - 06
HAM
Ferrari
35%grid 13 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
34%grid 2 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
12%grid 11 - 09
HAD
Racing Bulls
11%grid 5 - 10
TSU
Red Bull Racing
10%grid 17 - 11
SAI
Williams
9%grid 15 - 12
LAW
Racing Bulls
9%grid 7 - 13
BEA
Haas F1 Team
7%grid 8 - 14
BOR
Kick Sauber
5%grid 18 - 15
GAS
Alpine
3%grid 9 - 16
HUL
Kick Sauber
2%grid 10 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
2%grid 20 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
2%grid 14 - 19
ALB
Williams
1%grid 12 - 20
COL
Alpine
1%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
81%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.55
- team form+1.01
- driver form (last 3)+0.79
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 80.9%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 75.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5