driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.464
- brier
- 0.139
- ECE
- 0.139
- field avg
- 22%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
82%grid 2 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
70%grid 4 - 03
PIA
McLaren
68%grid 1 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
62%grid 3 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
56%grid 10 - 06
HAD
Racing Bulls
22%grid 6 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
18%grid 5 - 08
LAW
Racing Bulls
15%grid 12 - 09
SAI
Williams
11%grid 7 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
11%grid 8 - 11
HAM
Ferrari
6%grid 17 - 12
BEA
Haas F1 Team
5%grid 13 - 13
TSU
Red Bull Racing
3%grid 15 - 14
GAS
Alpine
2%grid 9 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
2%grid 11 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 18 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 16 - 18
BOR
Kick Sauber
1%grid 19 - 19
ALB
Williams
1%grid 14 - 20
COL
Alpine
1%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
82%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.55
- team form+0.67
- quali form+0.64
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 82.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 75.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5