driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.370
- brier
- 0.103
- ECE
- 0.147
- field avg
- 15%
- spread
- 74
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
74%grid 2 - 02
PIA
McLaren
69%grid 1 - 03
VER
Red Bull Racing
61%grid 3 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
45%grid 4 - 05
ANT
Mercedes
29%grid 5 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
7%grid 10 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
3%grid 17 - 08
BEA
Haas F1 Team
2%grid 13 - 09
TSU
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 15 - 10
SAI
Williams
2%grid 7 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
2%grid 6 - 12
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 11 - 13
COL
Alpine
1%grid 20 - 14
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 12 - 15
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 16 - 16
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 8 - 17
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 9 - 18
ALB
Williams
1%grid 14 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 18 - 20
BOR
Kick Sauber
1%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
74%
- grid position+2.04
- driver form (last 5)+0.72
- team form+0.68
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 74.2%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 71.7%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)