driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.268
- brier
- 0.096
- ECE
- 0.150
- field avg
- 15%
- spread
- 71
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
71%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
68%grid 2 - 03
NOR
McLaren
47%grid 3 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
36%grid 5 - 05
PIA
McLaren
23%grid 4 - 06
SAI
Ferrari
22%grid 7 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
18%grid 6 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 9 - 09
GAS
Alpine
2%grid 11 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 8 - 11
MAG
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 10 - 12
OCO
Alpine
1%grid 20 - 13
TSU
RB
1%grid 14 - 14
LAW
RB
1%grid 17 - 15
ALB
Williams
1%grid 16 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 15 - 17
HUL
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 18 - 18
ZHO
Kick Sauber
1%grid 12 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
1%grid 13 - 20
COL
Williams
1%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
71%
- grid position+1.91
- driver form (last 5)+0.67
- quali gap to pole+0.59
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 71.2%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 44.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)