driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.188
- brier
- 0.060
- ECE
- 0.103
- field avg
- 18%
- spread
- 75
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
LEC
Ferrari
75%grid 1 - 02
PIA
McLaren
64%grid 2 - 03
NOR
McLaren
61%grid 4 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
61%grid 6 - 05
SAI
Ferrari
55%grid 3 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
19%grid 5 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
10%grid 7 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
10%grid 16 - 09
TSU
RB
2%grid 8 - 10
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 10 - 11
ALB
Williams
1%grid 9 - 12
SAR
Williams
1%grid 15 - 13
RIC
RB
1%grid 12 - 14
BOT
Kick Sauber
1%grid 17 - 15
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 14 - 16
ZHO
Kick Sauber
1%grid 18 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 13 - 18
HUL
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 19 - 19
MAG
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 20 - 20
OCO
Alpine
1%grid 11
Top driver · factor breakdown
LEC
Ferrari
Probability
75%
- grid position+1.91
- driver form (last 5)+0.80
- quali gap to pole+0.62
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on LEC (Ferrari) at 75.4%.
Strongest team average: Ferrari 65.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)