JULES TACK.
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§ Round 22 · 2024

Las Vegas Grand Prix.

2024-11-23 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R21R23 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.283
brier
0.088
ECE
0.145
field avg
16%
spread
71

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    SAI

    Ferrari

    72%grid 2
  2. 02

    RUS

    Mercedes

    60%grid 1
  3. 03

    LEC

    Ferrari

    58%grid 4
  4. 04

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    45%grid 5
  5. 05

    GAS

    Alpine

    26%grid 3
  6. 06

    NOR

    McLaren

    23%grid 6
  7. 07

    PIA

    McLaren

    8%grid 8
  8. 08

    HAM

    Mercedes

    8%grid 10
  9. 09

    TSU

    RB

    3%grid 7
  10. 10

    PER

    Red Bull Racing

    2%grid 15
  11. 11

    OCO

    Alpine

    2%grid 11
  12. 12

    HUL

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 9
  13. 13

    MAG

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 12
  14. 14

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 18
  15. 15

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 17
  16. 16

    ZHO

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 13
  17. 17

    BOT

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 19
  18. 18

    COL

    Williams

    1%grid 20
  19. 19

    LAW

    RB

    1%grid 14
  20. 20

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 16

Top driver · factor breakdown

SAI

Ferrari

Probability

72%

  • grid position
    +1.92
  • team form
    +0.84
  • quali gap to pole
    +0.61
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on SAI (Ferrari) at 71.7%.

Strongest team average: Ferrari 64.9%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)