JULES TACK.
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§ Round 16 · 2024

Italian Grand Prix.

2024-09-01 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R15R17 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.176
brier
0.054
ECE
0.077
field avg
19%
spread
84

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    PIA

    McLaren

    85%grid 2
  2. 02

    NOR

    McLaren

    80%grid 1
  3. 03

    RUS

    Mercedes

    47%grid 3
  4. 04

    HAM

    Mercedes

    47%grid 6
  5. 05

    LEC

    Ferrari

    42%grid 4
  6. 06

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    37%grid 7
  7. 07

    SAI

    Ferrari

    31%grid 5
  8. 08

    PER

    Red Bull Racing

    7%grid 8
  9. 09

    COL

    Williams

    1%grid 18
  10. 10

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 11
  11. 11

    HUL

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 10
  12. 12

    ZHO

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 20
  13. 13

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 17
  14. 14

    GAS

    Alpine

    1%grid 14
  15. 15

    TSU

    RB

    1%grid 16
  16. 16

    OCO

    Alpine

    1%grid 15
  17. 17

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 9
  18. 18

    MAG

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 13
  19. 19

    BOT

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 19
  20. 20

    RIC

    RB

    1%grid 12

Top driver · factor breakdown

PIA

McLaren

Probability

85%

  • grid position
    +1.80
  • team form
    +1.14
  • driver form (last 5)
    +0.88
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 84.6%.

Strongest team average: McLaren 82.5%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)