JULES TACK.
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§ Round 16 · 2025

Italian Grand Prix.

2025-09-07 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R15R17 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.096
brier
0.022
ECE
0.082
field avg
15%
spread
85

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    NOR

    McLaren

    86%grid 2
  2. 02

    PIA

    McLaren

    79%grid 3
  3. 03

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    56%grid 1
  4. 04

    LEC

    Ferrari

    33%grid 4
  5. 05

    RUS

    Mercedes

    24%grid 5
  6. 06

    HAM

    Ferrari

    7%grid 10
  7. 07

    ANT

    Mercedes

    6%grid 6
  8. 08

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    3%grid 8
  9. 09

    BOR

    Kick Sauber

    2%grid 7
  10. 10

    TSU

    Red Bull Racing

    2%grid 9
  11. 11

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 14
  12. 12

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 16
  13. 13

    HUL

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 12
  14. 14

    LAW

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 18
  15. 15

    HAD

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 19
  16. 16

    BEA

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 11
  17. 17

    OCO

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 15
  18. 18

    SAI

    Williams

    1%grid 13
  19. 19

    COL

    Alpine

    1%grid 17
  20. 20

    GAS

    Alpine

    1%grid 20

Top driver · factor breakdown

NOR

McLaren

Probability

86%

  • grid position
    +2.05
  • team form
    +1.13
  • driver form (last 5)
    +0.83
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 86.0%.

Strongest team average: McLaren 82.6%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)