driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.107
- brier
- 0.027
- ECE
- 0.088
- field avg
- 14%
- spread
- 83
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
84%grid 1 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
69%grid 2 - 03
PIA
McLaren
53%grid 3 - 04
HAM
Ferrari
36%grid 4 - 05
RUS
Mercedes
23%grid 5 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
9%grid 7 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
4%grid 9 - 08
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 6 - 09
ALB
Williams
1%grid 12 - 10
TSU
Red Bull Racing
1%grid 18 - 11
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 10 - 12
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 20 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 11 - 14
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 17 - 15
HAD
Racing Bulls
1%grid 13 - 16
BOR
Kick Sauber
1%grid 8 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 16 - 18
SAI
Williams
1%grid 19 - 19
BEA
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 15 - 20
COL
Alpine
0%grid 14
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
84%
- grid position+2.04
- team form+0.96
- driver form (last 5)+0.73
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 83.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 68.1%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)