driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.287
- brier
- 0.096
- ECE
- 0.152
- field avg
- 14%
- spread
- 78
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
79%grid 3 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
66%grid 2 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
54%grid 1 - 04
NOR
McLaren
33%grid 7 - 05
HAM
Ferrari
18%grid 5 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
14%grid 8 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
10%grid 4 - 08
ALB
Williams
2%grid 9 - 09
TSU
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 18 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 6 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
1%grid 12 - 12
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 11 - 13
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 20 - 14
COL
Alpine
0%grid 10 - 15
OCO
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 14 - 16
LAW
Racing Bulls
0%grid 19 - 17
BOR
Kick Sauber
0%grid 15 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 13 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
0%grid 17 - 20
SAI
Williams
0%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
79%
- grid position+1.41
- team form+1.13
- driver form (last 5)+0.99
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 78.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 55.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)