driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.557
- brier
- 0.190
- ECE
- 0.175
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 72
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
88%grid 2 - 02
PIA
McLaren
83%grid 3 - 03
ALO
Aston Martin
82%grid 6 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
81%grid 1 - 05
ALB
Williams
75%grid 9 - 06
COL
Alpine
70%grid 10 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
67%grid 5 - 08
HAD
Racing Bulls
66%grid 12 - 09
HUL
Kick Sauber
64%grid 11 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
59%grid 13 - 11
BOR
Kick Sauber
48%grid 15 - 12
OCO
Haas F1 Team
42%grid 14 - 13
ANT
Mercedes
35%grid 4 - 14
LAW
Racing Bulls
32%grid 19 - 15
LEC
Ferrari
32%grid 8 - 16
NOR
McLaren
24%grid 7 - 17
SAI
Williams
23%grid 16 - 18
GAS
Alpine
19%grid 20 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
17%grid 17 - 20
TSU
Red Bull Racing
15%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
88%
- vs teammate grid+1.00
- vs teammate quali+0.54
- driver form (last 5)+0.23
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 87.7%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 57.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race