§ Round 24 · 2025
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
2025-12-07 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.506
- brier
- 0.164
- ECE
- 0.132
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 71
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
87%grid 1 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
81%grid 5 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
78%grid 4 - 04
SAI
Williams
73%grid 12 - 05
ALO
Aston Martin
68%grid 6 - 06
BOR
Kick Sauber
68%grid 7 - 07
OCO
Haas F1 Team
65%grid 8 - 08
GAS
Alpine
58%grid 19 - 09
NOR
McLaren
52%grid 2 - 10
HAD
Racing Bulls
52%grid 9 - 11
LAW
Racing Bulls
43%grid 13 - 12
PIA
McLaren
40%grid 3 - 13
COL
Alpine
38%grid 20 - 14
BEA
Haas F1 Team
36%grid 11 - 15
ANT
Mercedes
31%grid 14 - 16
ALB
Williams
27%grid 17 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
24%grid 15 - 18
HUL
Kick Sauber
22%grid 18 - 19
HAM
Ferrari
20%grid 16 - 20
TSU
Red Bull Racing
16%grid 10
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
87%
- vs teammate grid+0.96
- vs teammate quali+0.55
- driver form (last 5)+0.23
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 86.8%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 54.5%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race