driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.705
- brier
- 0.253
- ECE
- 0.218
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 72
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
88%grid 1 - 02
ALO
Aston Martin
80%grid 7 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
75%grid 4 - 04
GAS
Alpine
74%grid 8 - 05
HAD
Racing Bulls
60%grid 12 - 06
SAI
Williams
60%grid 9 - 07
BOR
Kick Sauber
56%grid 16 - 08
OCO
Haas F1 Team
54%grid 14 - 09
PIA
McLaren
54%grid 2 - 10
NOR
McLaren
53%grid 3 - 11
BEA
Haas F1 Team
52%grid 18 - 12
HAM
Ferrari
51%grid 5 - 13
ANT
Mercedes
46%grid 10 - 14
LEC
Ferrari
43%grid 6 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
37%grid 15 - 16
HUL
Kick Sauber
36%grid 19 - 17
ALB
Williams
34%grid 13 - 18
COL
Alpine
25%grid 20 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
16%grid 17 - 20
TSU
Red Bull Racing
16%grid 11
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
88%
- vs teammate grid+0.94
- vs teammate quali+0.64
- driver form (last 5)+0.21
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 87.6%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 60.4%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race