driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.631
- brier
- 0.217
- ECE
- 0.223
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 70
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
85%grid 4 - 02
ALO
Aston Martin
82%grid 6 - 03
OCO
Haas F1 Team
78%grid 8 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
76%grid 14 - 05
NOR
McLaren
76%grid 1 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
73%grid 2 - 07
GAS
Alpine
63%grid 17 - 08
ALB
Williams
62%grid 10 - 09
HUL
Kick Sauber
58%grid 13 - 10
HAD
Racing Bulls
50%grid 5 - 11
LAW
Racing Bulls
47%grid 9 - 12
ANT
Mercedes
38%grid 15 - 13
SAI
Williams
37%grid 11 - 14
BOR
Kick Sauber
36%grid 16 - 15
COL
Alpine
36%grid 18 - 16
PIA
McLaren
29%grid 3 - 17
HAM
Ferrari
25%grid 7 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
24%grid 20 - 19
TSU
Red Bull Racing
16%grid 12 - 20
STR
Aston Martin
16%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
85%
- vs teammate grid+0.95
- vs teammate quali+0.49
- driver form (last 5)+0.21
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 85.4%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 57.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race