driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.749
- brier
- 0.279
- ECE
- 0.286
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 61
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
81%grid 3 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
81%grid 5 - 03
GAS
Alpine
72%grid 14 - 04
SAI
Williams
62%grid 9 - 05
ALO
Aston Martin
62%grid 10 - 06
BOR
Kick Sauber
60%grid 13 - 07
HAD
Racing Bulls
59%grid 4 - 08
PIA
McLaren
55%grid 1 - 09
NOR
McLaren
54%grid 2 - 10
OCO
Haas F1 Team
52%grid 18 - 11
BEA
Haas F1 Team
49%grid 20 - 12
HAM
Ferrari
49%grid 7 - 13
ANT
Mercedes
47%grid 11 - 14
LEC
Ferrari
42%grid 6 - 15
STR
Aston Martin
40%grid 19 - 16
LAW
Racing Bulls
36%grid 8 - 17
ALB
Williams
33%grid 15 - 18
COL
Alpine
33%grid 16 - 19
HUL
Kick Sauber
33%grid 17 - 20
TSU
Red Bull Racing
21%grid 12
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
81%
- vs teammate grid+0.85
- vs teammate quali+0.53
- track history+0.04
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 81.3%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 64.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race