driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.528
- brier
- 0.171
- ECE
- 0.168
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 71
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
87%grid 1 - 02
ALO
Aston Martin
80%grid 10 - 03
SAI
Williams
79%grid 9 - 04
NOR
McLaren
77%grid 2 - 05
RUS
Mercedes
75%grid 4 - 06
BEA
Haas F1 Team
72%grid 8 - 07
LAW
Racing Bulls
69%grid 12 - 08
LEC
Ferrari
69%grid 3 - 09
HUL
Kick Sauber
67%grid 11 - 10
GAS
Alpine
59%grid 14 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
38%grid 20 - 12
PIA
McLaren
37%grid 6 - 13
HAM
Ferrari
36%grid 5 - 14
ANT
Mercedes
35%grid 7 - 15
BOR
Kick Sauber
33%grid 16 - 16
COL
Alpine
31%grid 15 - 17
TSU
Red Bull Racing
17%grid 13 - 18
ALB
Williams
17%grid 18 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
17%grid 19 - 20
OCO
Haas F1 Team
16%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
87%
- vs teammate grid+0.96
- vs teammate quali+0.54
- driver form (last 5)+0.23
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 87.3%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 57.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race