driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.538
- brier
- 0.180
- ECE
- 0.131
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 66
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
86%grid 4 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
80%grid 1 - 03
SAI
Williams
75%grid 13 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
72%grid 8 - 05
BOR
Kick Sauber
66%grid 7 - 06
BEA
Haas F1 Team
64%grid 11 - 07
COL
Alpine
59%grid 14 - 08
STR
Aston Martin
56%grid 6 - 09
NOR
McLaren
54%grid 3 - 10
PIA
McLaren
52%grid 2 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
48%grid 10 - 12
ALO
Aston Martin
44%grid 5 - 13
GAS
Alpine
44%grid 16 - 14
LAW
Racing Bulls
43%grid 9 - 15
ANT
Mercedes
32%grid 15 - 16
TSU
Red Bull Racing
31%grid 20 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
29%grid 17 - 18
ALB
Williams
26%grid 19 - 19
HAM
Ferrari
21%grid 12 - 20
HUL
Kick Sauber
20%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
86%
- vs teammate grid+0.92
- vs teammate quali+0.42
- driver form (last 5)+0.26
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 85.9%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 58.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race