§ Round 01 · 2025
Australian Grand Prix.
2025-03-16 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.509
- brier
- 0.166
- ECE
- 0.097
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 65
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
87%grid 3 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
85%grid 4 - 03
TSU
Racing Bulls
74%grid 5 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
66%grid 7 - 05
GAS
Alpine
66%grid 9 - 06
BOR
Kick Sauber
65%grid 15 - 07
NOR
McLaren
63%grid 1 - 08
ALB
Williams
60%grid 6 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
52%grid 12 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
46%grid 20 - 11
OCO
Haas F1 Team
43%grid 19 - 12
DOO
Alpine
41%grid 14 - 13
STR
Aston Martin
41%grid 13 - 14
PIA
McLaren
40%grid 2 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
39%grid 17 - 16
HAM
Ferrari
34%grid 8 - 17
SAI
Williams
30%grid 10 - 18
HAD
Racing Bulls
29%grid 11 - 19
LAW
Red Bull Racing
24%grid 18 - 20
ANT
Mercedes
22%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
87%
- vs teammate grid+0.99
- vs teammate quali+0.46
- driver form (last 5)+0.25
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 86.7%.
Strongest team average: Red Bull Racing 55.1%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race