§ Round 01 · 2025
Australian Grand Prix.
2025-03-16 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.451
- brier
- 0.149
- ECE
- 0.278
- field avg
- 56%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
92%grid 4 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
92%grid 7 - 03
NOR
McLaren
89%grid 1 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
89%grid 3 - 05
PIA
McLaren
88%grid 2 - 06
SAI
Williams
83%grid 10 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
83%grid 8 - 08
ANT
Mercedes
66%grid 16 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
57%grid 12 - 10
GAS
Alpine
51%grid 9 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
49%grid 11 - 12
BOR
Kick Sauber
46%grid 15 - 13
HUL
Kick Sauber
45%grid 17 - 14
DOO
Alpine
40%grid 14 - 15
TSU
Racing Bulls
39%grid 5 - 16
ALB
Williams
32%grid 6 - 17
LAW
Red Bull Racing
28%grid 18 - 18
OCO
Haas F1 Team
25%grid 19 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
24%grid 13 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
12%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
92%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.05
- finish pattern+0.47
- team form+0.44
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 92.5%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 88.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)