§ Round 01 · 2026
Australian Grand Prix.
2026-03-08 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.508
- brier
- 0.163
- ECE
- 0.164
- field avg
- 42%
- spread
- 90
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
93%grid 20 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
92%grid 1 - 03
NOR
McLaren
90%grid 6 - 04
PIA
McLaren
88%grid 5 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
85%grid 4 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
78%grid 2 - 07
HAD
Red Bull Racing
60%grid 3 - 08
HAM
Ferrari
48%grid 7 - 09
SAI
Williams
43%grid 21 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
41%grid 17 - 11
LIN
Racing Bulls
39%grid 9 - 12
BEA
Haas F1 Team
28%grid 12 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
27%grid 8 - 14
PER
Cadillac
20%grid 18 - 15
GAS
Alpine
18%grid 14 - 16
HUL
Audi
17%grid 11 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
17%grid 13 - 18
BOR
Audi
16%grid 10 - 19
ALB
Williams
9%grid 15 - 20
COL
Alpine
8%grid 16 - 21
BOT
Cadillac
8%grid 19 - 22
STR
Aston Martin
3%grid 22
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
93%
- Q3 appearance rate+0.91
- driver form (last 5)+0.74
- finish pattern+0.45
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 92.7%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 88.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)