driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.325
- brier
- 0.095
- ECE
- 0.128
- field avg
- 42%
- spread
- 90
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
95%grid 2 - 02
NOR
McLaren
92%grid 6 - 03
PIA
McLaren
90%grid 5 - 04
ANT
Mercedes
89%grid 1 - 05
VER
Red Bull Racing
88%grid 8 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
84%grid 4 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
57%grid 3 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
55%grid 9 - 09
SAI
Williams
38%grid 17 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
37%grid 10 - 11
ALO
Aston Martin
35%grid 18 - 12
LAW
Racing Bulls
25%grid 14 - 13
LIN
Racing Bulls
21%grid 15 - 14
OCO
Haas F1 Team
21%grid 13 - 15
BOR
Audi
19%grid 16 - 16
GAS
Alpine
16%grid 7 - 17
HUL
Audi
12%grid 11 - 18
COL
Alpine
11%grid 12 - 19
ALB
Williams
11%grid 22 - 20
BOT
Cadillac
10%grid 19 - 21
PER
Cadillac
8%grid 21 - 22
STR
Aston Martin
5%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
95%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.14
- driver form (last 5)+0.44
- FP best lap gap+0.31
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 94.7%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 91.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)