driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.133
- brier
- 0.038
- ECE
- 0.052
- field avg
- 13%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
82%grid 2 - 02
ANT
Mercedes
78%grid 1 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
28%grid 4 - 04
HAM
Ferrari
26%grid 3 - 05
NOR
McLaren
22%grid 6 - 06
PIA
McLaren
19%grid 5 - 07
VER
Red Bull Racing
17%grid 8 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 9 - 09
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 7 - 10
PER
Cadillac
1%grid 21 - 11
SAI
Williams
1%grid 17 - 12
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 20 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 18 - 14
LIN
Racing Bulls
1%grid 15 - 15
HUL
Audi
1%grid 11 - 16
BOT
Cadillac
1%grid 19 - 17
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 14 - 18
BOR
Audi
1%grid 16 - 19
ALB
Williams
1%grid 22 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 10 - 21
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 13 - 22
COL
Alpine
1%grid 12
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
82%
- grid position+2.16
- driver form (last 5)+0.80
- team form+0.59
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 81.8%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 79.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)