driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.301
- brier
- 0.096
- ECE
- 0.151
- field avg
- 25%
- spread
- 74
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
76%grid 2 - 02
PIA
McLaren
76%grid 5 - 03
NOR
McLaren
73%grid 6 - 04
ANT
Mercedes
65%grid 1 - 05
HAD
Red Bull Racing
63%grid 9 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
63%grid 8 - 07
LEC
Ferrari
50%grid 4 - 08
HAM
Ferrari
16%grid 3 - 09
SAI
Williams
12%grid 17 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
10%grid 18 - 11
PER
Cadillac
8%grid 21 - 12
BEA
Haas F1 Team
8%grid 10 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
7%grid 14 - 14
LIN
Racing Bulls
6%grid 15 - 15
GAS
Alpine
5%grid 7 - 16
HUL
Audi
4%grid 11 - 17
BOR
Audi
4%grid 16 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
3%grid 20 - 19
OCO
Haas F1 Team
3%grid 13 - 20
BOT
Cadillac
2%grid 19 - 21
ALB
Williams
2%grid 22 - 22
COL
Alpine
2%grid 12
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
76%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.46
- team form+0.94
- driver form (last 5)+0.76
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 76.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 74.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5