driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.300
- brier
- 0.089
- ECE
- 0.194
- field avg
- 27%
- spread
- 75
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
75%grid 3 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
71%grid 2 - 03
VER
Red Bull Racing
66%grid 4 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
62%grid 6 - 05
PIA
McLaren
62%grid 1 - 06
SAI
Williams
41%grid 15 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
38%grid 5 - 08
ANT
Mercedes
22%grid 8 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
16%grid 13 - 10
HAD
Racing Bulls
14%grid 7 - 11
DOO
Alpine
13%grid 18 - 12
GAS
Alpine
12%grid 16 - 13
BOR
Kick Sauber
11%grid 19 - 14
HUL
Kick Sauber
10%grid 12 - 15
ALB
Williams
9%grid 10 - 16
LAW
Red Bull Racing
8%grid 20 - 17
TSU
Racing Bulls
6%grid 9 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
3%grid 14 - 19
OCO
Haas F1 Team
3%grid 11 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
75%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.24
- driver form (last 3)+0.68
- team form+0.67
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 75.2%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 68.4%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5