driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.220
- brier
- 0.063
- ECE
- 0.134
- field avg
- 26%
- spread
- 82
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
84%grid 4 - 02
NOR
McLaren
84%grid 2 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
64%grid 5 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
62%grid 1 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
55%grid 8 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
39%grid 3 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
38%grid 12 - 08
TSU
Red Bull Racing
22%grid 10 - 09
SAI
Williams
18%grid 6 - 10
GAS
Alpine
14%grid 20 - 11
ALB
Williams
7%grid 7 - 12
HAD
Racing Bulls
5%grid 11 - 13
HUL
Kick Sauber
4%grid 16 - 14
ALO
Aston Martin
3%grid 17 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
2%grid 15 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
2%grid 18 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
2%grid 9 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
2%grid 19 - 19
DOO
Alpine
2%grid 14 - 20
BOR
Kick Sauber
2%grid 13
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
84%
- team form+1.35
- Q3 appearance rate+1.24
- driver form (last 3)+0.92
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 84.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 83.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5