driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.395
- brier
- 0.109
- ECE
- 0.131
- field avg
- 26%
- spread
- 86
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
88%grid 1 - 02
PIA
McLaren
83%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
59%grid 3 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
57%grid 6 - 05
VER
Red Bull Racing
57%grid 4 - 06
HAM
Ferrari
47%grid 18 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
47%grid 19 - 08
GAS
Alpine
12%grid 13 - 09
HAD
Racing Bulls
12%grid 8 - 10
ALB
Williams
11%grid 5 - 11
ALO
Aston Martin
11%grid 20 - 12
TSU
Red Bull Racing
7%grid 7 - 13
SAI
Williams
6%grid 17 - 14
LAW
Racing Bulls
5%grid 9 - 15
BOR
Kick Sauber
4%grid 10 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
3%grid 16 - 17
BEA
Haas F1 Team
3%grid 12 - 18
OCO
Haas F1 Team
3%grid 11 - 19
HUL
Kick Sauber
2%grid 14 - 20
COL
Alpine
2%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
88%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.55
- team form+1.15
- driver form (last 3)+0.64
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 88.2%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 85.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5