driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.094
- brier
- 0.023
- ECE
- 0.077
- field avg
- 13%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
82%grid 1 - 02
PIA
McLaren
78%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
47%grid 3 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
28%grid 4 - 05
RUS
Mercedes
13%grid 6 - 06
HAM
Ferrari
5%grid 18 - 07
ALB
Williams
3%grid 5 - 08
TSU
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 7 - 09
ANT
Mercedes
2%grid 19 - 10
HUL
Kick Sauber
2%grid 14 - 11
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 13 - 12
BOR
Kick Sauber
1%grid 10 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 9 - 14
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 16 - 15
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 11 - 16
SAI
Williams
1%grid 17 - 17
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 20 - 18
HAD
Racing Bulls
1%grid 8 - 19
BEA
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 12 - 20
COL
Alpine
0%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
82%
- grid position+2.06
- team form+0.94
- driver form (last 5)+0.83
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 81.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 79.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)