JULES TACK.
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§ Round 01 · 2025

Australian Grand Prix.

2025-03-16 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

R02 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.155
brier
0.045
ECE
0.121
field avg
15%
spread
68

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    NOR

    McLaren

    69%grid 1
  2. 02

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    61%grid 3
  3. 03

    PIA

    McLaren

    57%grid 2
  4. 04

    RUS

    Mercedes

    48%grid 4
  5. 05

    LEC

    Ferrari

    21%grid 7
  6. 06

    SAI

    Williams

    9%grid 10
  7. 07

    HAM

    Ferrari

    8%grid 8
  8. 08

    TSU

    Racing Bulls

    7%grid 5
  9. 09

    ANT

    Mercedes

    4%grid 16
  10. 10

    HAD

    Racing Bulls

    3%grid 11
  11. 11

    GAS

    Alpine

    2%grid 9
  12. 12

    ALB

    Williams

    2%grid 6
  13. 13

    LAW

    Red Bull Racing

    1%grid 18
  14. 14

    BOR

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 15
  15. 15

    OCO

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 19
  16. 16

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 12
  17. 17

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 13
  18. 18

    BEA

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 20
  19. 19

    HUL

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 17
  20. 20

    DOO

    Alpine

    1%grid 14

Top driver · factor breakdown

NOR

McLaren

Probability

69%

  • grid position
    +2.12
  • quali gap to pole
    +0.63
  • driver form (last 5)
    +0.54
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 68.8%.

Strongest team average: McLaren 62.7%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)