JULES TACK.
Season202420252026
Round010203
§ Round 01 · 2026

Australian Grand Prix.

2026-03-08 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation

R02 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.147
brier
0.043
ECE
0.084
field avg
13%
spread
73

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    RUS

    Mercedes

    73%grid 1
  2. 02

    ANT

    Mercedes

    64%grid 2
  3. 03

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    31%grid 20
  4. 04

    HAD

    Red Bull Racing

    29%grid 3
  5. 05

    LEC

    Ferrari

    29%grid 4
  6. 06

    PIA

    McLaren

    19%grid 5
  7. 07

    NOR

    McLaren

    14%grid 6
  8. 08

    SAI

    Williams

    3%grid 21
  9. 09

    HAM

    Ferrari

    2%grid 7
  10. 10

    BOT

    Cadillac

    2%grid 19
  11. 11

    LIN

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 9
  12. 12

    PER

    Cadillac

    1%grid 18
  13. 13

    HUL

    Audi

    1%grid 11
  14. 14

    BOR

    Audi

    1%grid 10
  15. 15

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 17
  16. 16

    BEA

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 12
  17. 17

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 15
  18. 18

    OCO

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 13
  19. 19

    LAW

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 8
  20. 20

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 22
  21. 21

    GAS

    Alpine

    1%grid 14
  22. 22

    COL

    Alpine

    1%grid 16

Top driver · factor breakdown

RUS

Mercedes

Probability

73%

  • grid position
    +2.19
  • quali gap to pole
    +0.75
  • team form
    +0.55
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 73.4%.

Strongest team average: Mercedes 68.7%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)