§ Round 01 · 2026
Australian Grand Prix.
2026-03-08 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.599
- brier
- 0.200
- ECE
- 0.156
- field avg
- 47%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
ANT
Mercedes
89%grid 2 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
87%grid 1 - 03
PIA
McLaren
87%grid 5 - 04
NOR
McLaren
84%grid 6 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
79%grid 4 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
75%grid 20 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
74%grid 7 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
72%grid 3 - 09
LIN
Racing Bulls
59%grid 9 - 10
HUL
Audi
48%grid 11 - 11
LAW
Racing Bulls
43%grid 8 - 12
SAI
Williams
41%grid 21 - 13
BOR
Audi
30%grid 10 - 14
OCO
Haas F1 Team
24%grid 13 - 15
ALB
Williams
23%grid 15 - 16
BEA
Haas F1 Team
23%grid 12 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
21%grid 22 - 18
ALO
Aston Martin
19%grid 17 - 19
PER
Cadillac
18%grid 18 - 20
BOT
Cadillac
15%grid 19 - 21
GAS
Alpine
11%grid 14 - 22
COL
Alpine
7%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
ANT
Mercedes
Probability
89%
- grid position+1.06
- driver form (last 5)+0.33
- track history+0.24
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on ANT (Mercedes) at 88.5%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 88.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver scores points (top 10)