§ Round 03 · 2026
Japanese Grand Prix.
2026-03-29 · 22 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.372
- brier
- 0.117
- ECE
- 0.131
- field avg
- 46%
- spread
- 87
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
94%grid 3 - 02
ANT
Mercedes
94%grid 1 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
94%grid 2 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
90%grid 4 - 05
NOR
McLaren
88%grid 5 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
78%grid 11 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
74%grid 6 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
69%grid 8 - 09
GAS
Alpine
66%grid 7 - 10
LIN
Racing Bulls
54%grid 10 - 11
BOR
Audi
37%grid 9 - 12
OCO
Haas F1 Team
26%grid 12 - 13
HUL
Audi
24%grid 13 - 14
BEA
Haas F1 Team
21%grid 18 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
20%grid 14 - 16
COL
Alpine
18%grid 15 - 17
SAI
Williams
16%grid 16 - 18
ALO
Aston Martin
15%grid 21 - 19
PER
Cadillac
10%grid 19 - 20
STR
Aston Martin
9%grid 22 - 21
BOT
Cadillac
7%grid 20 - 22
ALB
Williams
7%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
94%
- grid position+1.26
- team form+0.41
- quali gap to pole+0.35
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 93.9%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 93.7%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
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