driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.694
- brier
- 0.239
- ECE
- 0.269
- field avg
- 46%
- spread
- 86
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
94%grid 2 - 02
ANT
Mercedes
92%grid 1 - 03
HAM
Ferrari
91%grid 3 - 04
PIA
McLaren
90%grid 5 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
88%grid 4 - 06
NOR
McLaren
85%grid 6 - 07
VER
Red Bull Racing
85%grid 8 - 08
BEA
Haas F1 Team
57%grid 10 - 09
HAD
Red Bull Racing
52%grid 9 - 10
GAS
Alpine
48%grid 7 - 11
OCO
Haas F1 Team
37%grid 13 - 12
HUL
Audi
30%grid 11 - 13
SAI
Williams
29%grid 17 - 14
LIN
Racing Bulls
22%grid 15 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
21%grid 14 - 16
ALO
Aston Martin
19%grid 18 - 17
ALB
Williams
18%grid 22 - 18
BOR
Audi
13%grid 16 - 19
COL
Alpine
11%grid 12 - 20
STR
Aston Martin
11%grid 20 - 21
PER
Cadillac
9%grid 21 - 22
BOT
Cadillac
8%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
94%
- grid position+1.07
- driver form (last 5)+0.56
- quali gap to pole+0.31
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 94.0%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 93.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
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