driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.541
- brier
- 0.178
- ECE
- 0.270
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 51
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
SAI
Williams
73%grid 17 - 02
GAS
Alpine
71%grid 7 - 03
ALO
Aston Martin
70%grid 18 - 04
ANT
Mercedes
69%grid 1 - 05
BEA
Haas F1 Team
67%grid 10 - 06
BOT
Cadillac
66%grid 19 - 07
VER
Red Bull Racing
64%grid 8 - 08
HUL
Audi
59%grid 11 - 09
LIN
Racing Bulls
54%grid 15 - 10
NOR
McLaren
52%grid 6 - 11
PIA
McLaren
48%grid 5 - 12
HAM
Ferrari
47%grid 3 - 13
LEC
Ferrari
46%grid 4 - 14
HAD
Red Bull Racing
45%grid 9 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
43%grid 14 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
39%grid 20 - 17
PER
Cadillac
38%grid 21 - 18
RUS
Mercedes
38%grid 2 - 19
OCO
Haas F1 Team
34%grid 13 - 20
COL
Alpine
33%grid 12 - 21
BOR
Audi
32%grid 16 - 22
ALB
Williams
22%grid 22
Top driver · factor breakdown
SAI
Williams
Probability
73%
- vs teammate grid+0.65
- vs teammate quali+0.33
- driver form (last 5)−0.13
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on SAI (Williams) at 72.9%.
Strongest team average: Red Bull Racing 54.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race