driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.336
- brier
- 0.111
- ECE
- 0.124
- field avg
- 37%
- spread
- 97
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
98%grid 2 - 02
ANT
Mercedes
97%grid 1 - 03
NOR
McLaren
96%grid 6 - 04
PIA
McLaren
90%grid 5 - 05
HAM
Ferrari
86%grid 3 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
78%grid 8 - 07
LEC
Ferrari
76%grid 4 - 08
HAD
Red Bull Racing
57%grid 9 - 09
GAS
Alpine
33%grid 7 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
33%grid 10 - 11
HUL
Audi
16%grid 11 - 12
OCO
Haas F1 Team
15%grid 13 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
9%grid 14 - 14
BOR
Audi
6%grid 16 - 15
LIN
Racing Bulls
6%grid 15 - 16
SAI
Williams
4%grid 17 - 17
COL
Alpine
3%grid 12 - 18
ALO
Aston Martin
2%grid 18 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
2%grid 20 - 20
BOT
Cadillac
1%grid 19 - 21
ALB
Williams
1%grid 22 - 22
PER
Cadillac
1%grid 21
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
98%
- sprint grid+3.06
- team form+1.18
- driver form (last 5)+0.92
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 97.9%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 97.7%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
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