JULES TACK.
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§ Round 02 · 2024

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

2024-03-09 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

R03 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.509
brier
0.163
ECE
0.259
field avg
50%
spread
51

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    LEC

    Ferrari

    78%grid 2
  2. 02

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    76%grid 4
  3. 03

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    73%grid 1
  4. 04

    ALB

    Williams

    62%grid 12
  5. 05

    BOT

    Kick Sauber

    62%grid 16
  6. 06

    TSU

    RB

    59%grid 9
  7. 07

    RUS

    Mercedes

    59%grid 7
  8. 08

    MAG

    Haas F1 Team

    56%grid 13
  9. 09

    NOR

    McLaren

    54%grid 6
  10. 10

    OCO

    Alpine

    49%grid 17
  11. 11

    GAS

    Alpine

    49%grid 18
  12. 12

    HUL

    Haas F1 Team

    48%grid 15
  13. 13

    PIA

    McLaren

    44%grid 5
  14. 14

    HAM

    Mercedes

    38%grid 8
  15. 15

    ZHO

    Kick Sauber

    36%grid 20
  16. 16

    RIC

    RB

    35%grid 14
  17. 17

    PER

    Red Bull Racing

    33%grid 3
  18. 18

    STR

    Aston Martin

    32%grid 10
  19. 19

    SAR

    Williams

    27%grid 19
  20. 20

    BEA

    Ferrari

    27%grid 11

Top driver · factor breakdown

LEC

Ferrari

Probability

78%

  • vs teammate grid
    +0.81
  • vs teammate quali
    +0.31
  • track history
    +0.06
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on LEC (Ferrari) at 77.5%.

Strongest team average: Aston Martin 54.0%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race